The main tone of the short-long polysaccharide market

In the recent period, the price of Zheng sugar prices has come out of deep decline after being blocked near the previous high, and the bullish sentiment in the early stage has been greatly affected. At the same time, the international market ICE raw sugar futures prices fell into a wide range of shocks, making the sugar market as a whole more confused.

Judging from the pattern of the Zheng sugar price trend, the 20-day moving average and the two-headed prototype increased the bullishness of the market bulls. However, the support of the 60-day moving average remained, making the long-term uptrend pattern maintained. The market is entangled in the paradox of being head-to-head or shorting. The author believes that from the current factors in all aspects, short-term growth is still the main tone of the market outlook.

From the perspective of the international macroeconomic situation, the debt crisis in Europe has not been eliminated, and the US economic situation remains sound. The U.S. dollar index continued to maintain its high level, and it created short-term negative effects on the commodity market. According to the latest data, the employment trends index of the US World Large Enterprise Research Institute rose further in December last year. The OECD leading indicators indicate that the economy will accelerate growth, which increases the short-term bullishness of the US dollar. However, from a long-term point of view, a good economic situation will play a more significant role in promoting consumption, supporting the maintenance of high prices for commodity prices.

Domestically, the overall macroeconomic situation is at a steady and relatively rapid development stage. This is a long-term positive factor for the commodity market. Because high growth will inevitably accompany inflation, the impact of policy controls will have a greater effect on short-term market conditions. The National Information Center expects GDP to increase by approximately 9.5% in 2011. In order to prevent inflation, in addition to using financial tools to regulate and control, management has also stepped up supervision of hot money. Recently, SAFE has for the first time comprehensively analyzed the “hot money” control list and ideas, and strengthened cross-border flows of funds through channels such as trade, foreign direct investment, return investment, and overseas listing, and strengthened the management of comprehensive position and short-term foreign debt of bank’s foreign exchange purchase and sale. , strengthening the bank's authenticity audit obligations when handling foreign exchange business, and other methods to curb hot money inflows have achieved good results. The above measures are of positive significance to reducing the excess liquidity in the country.

With regard to the supply and demand fundamentals in the sugar market, the uncertainties in India's export policies in the international market have brought greater instability to the short-term market. The United States’ second sugar producer, Imperial Sugar, believes that India’s sugar supply this year will be in a surplus state. There are indications that India’s sugar supply surplus will reach 2 million to 5 million tons this year. At present, the export situation in India is still confusing and has a great impact on the market's short-term fluctuations.

The frozen weather in Guangxi, the main producing area of ​​the domestic market, is currently the focus of the market. However, the extent to which the impact on the crops in the producing areas is still not clear, making the trend of the price of sugar in the later period more variable. Judging from the current situation, production in Guangxi's main producing areas lags behind that of last year, but local sugar prices are still relatively stable. The quoted price of new sugar in the Nanning spot brokers in Guangxi remains at around 7,000 yuan/ton.

On the whole, the rise of the US dollar index poses a certain pressure on the international crude sugar short-term market. The domestic policy-oriented regulation will form a certain negative psychological impact on the market and put the short-term market under pressure. In the long term, the overall pattern of domestic sugar supply and demand in the new year will be tight, and the combination of inflation factors such as the increase in the cost of agricultural resources, human resources and transportation will not change the long-term strong pattern of sugar prices.