Pork prices hit a high in the year and it is expected that the uptrend will continue in the future

According to the monitoring of the Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Information Network of the Ministry of Agriculture, last week the national wholesale price index of vegetable basket products was 174.92 (in 2000, it was 100), which was 0.51 points higher than the previous week. Among them, pork prices have risen for 12 consecutive weeks, the average price last week was 17.47 yuan / kg, up 1.3% from the previous quarter, reaching a new high during the year, 26.6% higher than before the rise.

The wholesale price hit a record high in the year After experiencing a long period of low pig production, since the end of June, there has been a rapid rebound in domestic pork prices. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, the wholesale price of fresh pork rose back to 17.12 yuan/kg on August 27. This price has reached its highest point since the beginning of this year, which is about 5% higher than the same period of last year.

Statistics show that the current pig-to-grain ratio is about 6.2, which has been higher than the break-even point for several consecutive weeks, thus mobilizing the farmers' production enthusiasm to a certain extent.

According to industry sources, the rapid rise in pork prices is caused by a variety of reasons. Among them, early this year, especially in April and May, due to large losses of farmers, many farmers advanced the hog slaughter time, or even empty As a result, the supply of pigs in the latter period has been drastically reduced, laying a “foreshadowing” for the rebound in pork prices.

At the same time, in the first half of this year, the domestic climate was abnormal, and live pig disease occurred in the main domestic pig production areas represented by the Northeast. The survival rate of the piglets was low, resulting in a low market share of live pigs. In addition, floods occurred in many southern provinces, and pig transport was not Chang, some hog slaughtered pigs even broke the supply situation, but also stimulated the rise in pig prices.

In addition, the rising prices of feed ingredients such as corn and wheat, as well as the country’s repeated freezing and storage of pork in the first half of the year, have also contributed to the increase in pig prices. According to statistics, the current feed corn price has already exceeded 2 yuan/kg, and corn and wheat bran prices have all reached new highs in the past 10 years.

The uptrend is expected to continue despite the narrowing of gains at the end of August, but the upward trend of pork prices in the late period is still optimistic about the industry.

From the perspective of demand, after entering the month of September, with the arrival of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, domestic pork consumption will gradually enter the peak season of traditional consumption, and the market demand will be strong.

On the supply side, due to the need for a certain period of live pig breeding, coupled with the increase in pork prices, the aquaculture companies are generally reluctant to sell and reduce the amount of pig slaughter. Therefore, pig supply will not be rapidly enlarged in the short term.

The Ministry of Agriculture recently released information on live pigs. As of July 2010, the total number of live pigs in the country was 440 million heads, which was a month-on-month increase of 0.76%. Since the beginning of the year, the number of live pigs has been declining slightly, but the same period as in 2009 has eased. This is still down by 2.24% compared to the previous year. The number of fertile sows is 46.3 million, a month-on-month decrease of 1.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.66%.

Shenyin Wanguo's report believes that this time the recovery of pork prices can be regarded as the fourth “pigs cycle” since 2000. In the future, the recovery of pork prices will continue. It is expected that pork prices will be dominated by “maintaining stability” in the third quarter. At the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter, it entered the traditional peak season for pork consumption. As pig supply continues to decrease, pig prices will continue to increase. It is expected that pig prices will increase by around 15%-20% in the second half of the year. Affected by the pig breeding cycle, by September next year, there will be no significant rebound in the number of live pigs, and pork prices will not drop sharply. However, it is not expected that the current round of price increase will exceed 2008.