Is the price of pork increased for four consecutive months in the pig population?

According to the latest statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, pork prices rose by 57.1% in June, affecting CPI by about 1.37 percentage points, and pork prices continue to lead the CPI. The price is a roller coaster, and fluctuations in the hog industry are not uncommon. However, this round of pork prices continued to run high and caught up with inflation expectations. The issue of meat prices and raising pigs once again caused widespread concern. Will pork prices "fly" again?

The number of live pigs keeps growing and pig prices show signs of stabilizing and will remain generally high. Wang Zhicai, director of the Animal Husbandry Division of the Ministry of Agriculture, said that recently, the Ministry of Agriculture sent a steering team to Sichuan, Hunan and other large pig provinces to conduct research and analysis. In general, Since the beginning of this year, the price of live pigs has continued to rise, but the market supply is sufficient. The breeding efficiency is good. Breeding houses are active and the pig population has been increasing for four consecutive months. Currently, the price of live pigs is at a relatively high level and is expected to stabilize gradually in the later period. Market supply during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. Guaranteed. However, due to the high cost of farming, pig prices will remain high overall.

According to reports, affected by the loss of breeding, the pig population has been declining since February of last year, and has only recovered since March of this year. According to the monitoring of 2,000 hog farming villages across the country, the live pig population has rebounded slightly for four consecutive months. At the end of June, there were 3.786 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.5%.

According to the fixed-point monitoring of 470 bazaars across the country, the average prices of pork, live pigs and piglets nationwide in June were 26.71 yuan/kg, 17.54 yuan/kg and 31.11 yuan/kg respectively, up by 11.4%, 13.0% and 16.5 respectively over the previous month. %, up 66.5%, 81.9% and 116.2% respectively year-on-year. However, the recent price increase slowed down, and the weekly average price in the first week of July decreased by 0.71, 0.94, and 0.62 percentage points respectively, and contracted for two consecutive weeks. The price has stabilized.

Sales of pigs increased, and pigs' restocking increased steadily. According to data monitoring on 20 breeding farms across the country, 10,240 pure sows and 18,069 sows were sold in June, up 14.9% and 36.7% year-on-year respectively. The enthusiasm of farmers to purchase breeding pigs was significantly higher. Last year.

The increase in cost, loss of livestock, abnormal climate, and labor transfer are the main reasons for price increases. Wang Aiguo, a professor at the Animal Science and Technology College of China Agricultural University, analyzes that the continuous rise in live pig prices is the result of multiple factors.

First comes from cost promotion. From January to June this year, the average price of corn in the country was 2.18 yuan/kg, up 10.7% year-on-year, and more than 30% higher than the average level in the same period in the past five years. At present, the number of employees in live pig raising has increased by more than 20% year-on-year. According to calculations, according to the June price calculation, the purchase of 100 kg of fattened pigs for slaughter of pigs will cost about 1,350 yuan (excluding the depreciation of fixed assets and the management of financial costs), which is 23.3% higher than the same period of last year.

The loss of some farms in the early stages and the reduction of farming scale is also a reason. From September 2009 to June 2010, the price of live pigs fell for 9 consecutive months with a cumulative decrease of 20.2%. The pig-to-food ratio was below the break-even point for 23 consecutive weeks. The loss of farmers reached 58.2% at one time, and some farmers reduced their cultivation. Scale, reduction of sow feeding, declining stocks of fertile sows, and affecting slaughter of pigs in the first half of this year.

Affected by the continuing low-temperature climate in winter 2010, the survival rate of piglets decreased in some areas, and deaths increased more than usual. In January this year, a fixed number of 1,065,000 head of piglets was monitored, the lowest level since 2009, and the average of the previous three-year average of 1.179 million was 9.7%.

At present, there are more opportunities for peasants to go out to work and the income of raising a pig is not as fast as it is to get a few days of work. According to fixed-point monitoring, the proportion of pig-raising households in June was 22.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points, and a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from June 2009. At the same time, due to factors such as difficulties in financing, difficulties in land use, and pressure from environmental protection, the scale of aquaculture has slowed down. Compared with previous years, the number of newly-built pig breeding farms has decreased significantly since last year. Moreover, from a national point of view, the increase in scale farming is not enough to compensate for the withdrawal of individual households.

Six measures of the Ministry of Agriculture stabilize pig production (extended reading)

Beijing, July 11 (Reporter Zhang Yi) In order to fundamentally stabilize the development of live pig production and lay the foundation for the long-term stability of pork prices, the Ministry of Agriculture proposed six measures.

We must urge local governments to implement good policies such as rewarding pigs for large counties, construction of a standard-sized breeding farm for live pigs, subsidy for good pigs, and support for production of “vegetable baskets”. In-depth demonstration activities to establish standardization of pig breeding, selection of typical pig demonstration farms, and radiation to promote the development of standard pig farming in the surrounding areas, to help large-scale farmers to solve the practical difficulties of land use, loan difficulties and other practical difficulties. Continuing to send supervision teams to the main pig producing provinces to guide production, organize experts in the national hog industry technology system to enter the village to provide on-site guidance, carry out technical training, and help farm owners improve feeding management. At present, it has entered the high-temperature and high-humidity season, timely organized animal husbandry and veterinary departments at all levels, and fully focused on the prevention and control of major diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease, highly pathogenic blue-ear disease, and swine fever, and prevention and control of common pig diseases and epidemics. We will continue to focus on the special rectification of "lean meat essence" of live pigs. Strengthen production monitoring and information guidance.